I spent just one day at CES last week – clearly not enough time to take in all the gadgetry, but then again, it was plenty.

What I was certainly able to discern was the palpable difference from just one year ago when attendance felt tepid, and the mood was somber. At that time, we were just a few months removed from the economic nosedive, President Obama was still a couple weeks away from being inaugurated, and the stress of so much uncertainty was pretty much freaking everyone out big time.

This year, there was a bouyant giddyness in the air. Not only have we survived (sure, I know we could double-dip, etc., but…), but everyone seemed to be saying, “look at all this innovation we’ve produced while Rome was burning.”

In face, the Consumer Electronics Association says over 20,000 new products were unveiled last week in Las Vegas. That’s a lot of innovation.

3DTV technology abounded (I must have tried out a dozen different disposable eyeglasses), and numerous technologies sought to eliminate, once and for all, the tangled mess of wires that pervades our connected lives.

As a lover of technology, I was exceedingly pleased at the positive vibe pervading each and every acre of show floor space at this year’s show.

I boarded the red-eye home with a great feeling that my own optimism (based on how much innovation I see among our clients on a daily basis) is justified, confirmed and shared throughout this big innovative industry of ours.

Certainly no calendar flip would be complete without a laundry list of predictions for the new year. FierceWireless has put together a compelling predictions for the wireless industry. To summarize:

• Net neutrality will pass, but with exceptions for wireless
• Palm will be purchased by another handset vendor
• Pricing, coverage issues will hinder cable companies’ wireless offerings
• Sprint Nextel’s 4G leadership will help revive the carrier
• Huawei will get one LTE deal in North America
• At least one wireless carrier will experiment with usage-based data pricing
• Motorola will show some signs of recovery thanks to Android (last year, FierceWireless predicted “Motorola’s handset division will cease to be“)
• Computer makers’ attempts at Android smartphones will flounder

Read the full FierceWireless report here.

 

Meanwhile, Juniper Research has drawn up a list of predictions for the coming year, all neatly wrapped up as the top ten predictions for the mobile and wireless industry for 2010. Summarized as follows:

 

• Mobile Data Traffic Explosion to strain 3G Networks, spur data pricing overhaul
• Mobile Ecosystem starts to go green
• Mobile Heads for the Cloud
• New Category of Merging Smartphone Functionality and Netbooks to Emerge
• Apps Stores All Round
• Mobile Social Networking to Integrate with other Applications including M-Commerce
• NFC phones appear in the shops
• At least 10 LTE networks to be launched into service
• Smartphones to Get Augmented Reality Makeover
•  Christmas Kindle sales expected to herald the rise of the connected embedded consumer devices

The first prediction is one I’m hearing a lot about from our infrastructure clients. As Juniper says, although 3G is less than ten years old, 2010 could be the year when 3G networks begin to fall over under the burden of mobile data, due largely to some 33.8m iPhones that have been sold since launch.

 

Then there’s Dean Bubley‘s predictions from his Disruptive Wireless blog. Dean lists “heroes, zeroes, and no-surprises” as follows:

 

Heros

• HSPA+
• Apple iPhone
• Android
• Augmented reality
• Facebook
• Consumer femtocells
• Huawei
• “Comes with data”
• Connection-sharing
• Operator-on-operator applications

Zeros

• Mobile IMS and RCS
• LTE
• Virtual conferences
• NFC
• Twitter
• Enterprise femtocells
• Embedded 3G netbooks
• Smartphone profit margins
• Operator AppStores
• Aggregated social networks
• The terms “dumb pipe” and “over the top”

No surprises

• WiMAX
• Open network APIs
• WiFi
• Nokia
• BlackBerry
• Consolidation
• Mobile TV (“Was dead, is dead, will stay dead.”)
• Data roaming prices

And finally, WirelessWeek compiled its list by soliciting input from “industry leaders” on the following topics for 2010:

• Prepaid & data
• Net neutrality & mobile web
• Emphasis on competition, emerging devices
• Race to converged connectivity
• Wireless in the enterprise
• Content & apps purchasing on rise
• Video optimization as prevalent as web optimization
• Synthesis for M2M services
• Mobile money expansion
• Smartphones for more people
• M2M is major growth area
• Large brands recognize value of mobile applications
• Mobile backhaul providers embrace COE to meet needs

Lots of predictions in a volatile industry. I came away from the holidays with one prevailing observation – as we turn the decade clock to 2010, one thing is far different than ten years ago. My extended family had a lovely time together as always, but everyone sure spent a lot of time on their various mobile devices. At one point, I looked around the table at more than a dozen siblings, children, neices & nephews and saw why the room was so quiet – everyone had a mobile device in their hands.

My prediction: This mobile thing is going to be big.

Jason Pontin, editor-in-chief and publisher of (MIT’s) Technology Review, has written an important essay titled “On the Evolution of Technology.”

The second sentence in the essay articulates the very reason I founded Rainier back in 1993: “When a technology first appears in the world, it is not understood: no one knows what to do with it.”

Pontin discusses Brian Arthur‘s book The Nature of Technology: What It Is and How It Evolves, and Arthur’s explanation of why truly new technologies are so slow to be adopted. New technology domains, he says, betray “missing pieces” that technologists must develop before useful applications can be successfully commercialized. One of these missing pieces, I believe, is the ability to clearly communicate new technologies to the market.

Pontin says the real economic value of new technologies is almost always imperfectly understood because the technologies’ markets do not yet exist. It’s been interesting for me to note over the years how true this is for so many of the technologies we are involved with bringing to market – especially those which are truly disruptive, or don’t quite fit into existing market categories.

Brian Arthur’s question, “What [does the new technology]allow people to do that could not be done before?” is one we ask our clients all the time.

The answer(s) are so crucial to successfully marketing a product, that we won’t even agree to launch a new technology until we’re satisfied the disruption, and all its necessary ecosystem components of success (what Arthur calls the “missing pieces” technologists must develop before useful applications can be successfully commercialized), has been thoroughly and defensibly defined.

Reading Dana Mattioli‘s article in the Wall Street Journal today about R&D spending. She cites a recent Booz & Co study of 1,000 of the world’s biggest R&D spenders – the study finds that most companies have stuck with their innovation programs despite the recession — and many are boosting spending to compete more effectively in the upturn.

Mattioli’s article is a nice summary, but the Booz report itself (written by Barry Jaruzelski and Kevin Dehoff)is highly recommended reading for anyone involved in innovation.

I like the tone and content of many of the executive quotes in the report like:

• “Innovation is what drives our competitive position in all three of our markets — automotive, professional, and consumer — and therefore we can’t back off,” says Robert Lardon, corporate VP for at Harman International Industries.
• Adalio Sanchez, GM of IBM’s System X server business, echoes that point of view: “I would argue that the recession is a catalyst for increased innovation.”

Booz cites three primary reasons companies are so reluctant to cut innovation spending when times are extremely tough.

1. Innovation has become a core component of overall corporate strategy. Given the fierce nature of business competition in recent years, a reduction in innovation efforts would be akin to unilateral disarmament in wartime.
2. Companies in most sectors are typically committed to product development cycles that extend for many years — well beyond the length of an average recession. If they are suppliers, they have often already contracted to help develop their customers’ next new model; if they sell to consumers, missing an innovation cycle can mean being put out of the game entirely.
3. Many companies see the recession as an opportunity to build their advantage over their competitors
   — especially weaker ones that may have to skimp on R&D for financial reasons. If the stronger companies can maintain the pace of innovation, the thinking goes, they may be able to gain market share quickly once the upturn gets under way in earnest.

Judging from the data in the Booz study, the results of their survey, and their conversations with executives, innovation has become central to every company’s efforts to compete. And the degree of competition has been in no sense reduced by the downturn.

If anything, concludes the Booz report, it has been heightened, and most companies are fully aware of the need to be in position to profit from the coming upturn.

This includes, of course, keeping up a steady flow of PR to ensure a relentless brand presence, as well.

The Booz report: Profits Down, Spending Steady: The Global Innovation 1000

President Obama’s new “Educate to Innovate”  campaign aims to improve the participation and performance of America’s students in science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM).

The President launched the initiative with these words, “We’re going to show young people how cool science can be.” Having spent my entire career dedicated to the promotion of technology and innovation, I could not be more excited to hear such sentiments from the President of the United States!

The campaign expects to include Federal Government participation, as well as imput from leading companies, foundations, non-profits, and science and engineering societies to work with young people across America to excel in science and math.

In fact, five major public-private partnerships are jumping in to harness the power of media, interactive games, hands-on learning, and community volunteers to reach millions of students over the next four years, inspiring them to be the next generation of inventors and innovators. $4.35 billion in Federal grants will be offered to schools who can innovate in STEM education and the private sector is stepping up with an additional $260 million in related funding and programs.

I like what Chuck Lawton had to say in his GeekDad post about this. “Part of what makes this exciting is the contrast between “Educate to Innovate” and the purely standards-based ‘No Child Left Behind’ initiative which had similar but broader goals for increasing educational competency. Regardless of where you stand on the merits of NCLB, a focus to improve test scores as the only metric for improvement isn’t as engaging or applicable for students as robotics competitions, computer programming in the form of games or other real-world applications of science. And corporations looking for the next wave of top thinkers, such as Intel, now have the ability to get involved.”

These remain exciting times in general, and while many say the President has too much on his plate, this kind of initiative has been a LONG time coming. I’m glad to see an adminstration willing to face the slide in America’s ability to educate in science and math. And more importantly, an adminstration willing to DO something about it!

By the way, parts of Tom Friedman’s recent column Advice From Grandma resonate perfectly with this. Friedman declares he is ”not ready to cede the 21st century to China just yet,” because you cannot commodotize imagination. And today’s technology allows us, he says, to act on our imaginations farther, faster, deeper and cheaper than ever before.

• Whitehouse press release on Educate to Innovate
• Whitehouse blog on Educate to Innovate
• President Obama’s full remarks on Educate to Innovate

The book “Startup Nation” by Dan Senor and Saul Singer is climbing the bestseller charts these days.

It’s certainly a great read, and confirms so many of the observations I’ve had the privilege to make first-hand over the past two years since Rainier opened its Israel office (I travel to Tel Aviv again in about 10 days…).

And now the authors have an article in Newsweek – “Soldiers of Fortune: How the Israeli Army became the most prolific innovation engine on earth.”
The article focuses on one key aspect of the book – the Israeli military’s role in becoming a boot camp for new tech entrepreneurs.

I remember coming home from my first formal business trip to Israel in 2007, and saying (regarding the breathtaking innovation I’d seen over 25+ meetings), “There’s something about the army background that’s driving all this…”

 
Please don’t get the mistaken impression though, that Israel’s entrepreneurial success is solely about the military. As Yaron Samid says in his TechAviv article, “Without stealing the thunder from this uniquely well written book, here are a few of the observations Dan and Saul present from detailed case studies and interviews with Israel’s top innovators:

• Israeli immigration and assimilation policies bring and support a highly motivated, diversified pool of talent into the country.
• Israel spends more as a percentage of our economy on R&D than any other country in the world and knows how to make that money relevant to startups.
• Israel actively cultivates a culture of entrepreneurship and leadership in the military. Teenagers are not only given the responsibility to make life-saving decisions, typically with little data, but to question authority regularly in doing so.
• The Israeli economy respects and knows how to integrate the unique talents and “chutzpah” developed by soldiers in the military.

Next month I’ll make my 20th trip to Israel. I’ll meet with somewhere around 25 Israeli high-tech companies and many of the VCs who are driving this unique innovation engine. It’s an absolutely fantastic phenomenon, and a thrill for anyone like me who thrives on being around technology (and, of course, helping to bring technology to the market!).

Speaking at Venture Beat’s Smart Grid conference the other day, VC superstar John Doerr (of Kleiner Perkins) declared that “Greentech could be the largest economic opportunity of the 21st century.”

Doerr compares the evolution of the Smart Grid to the initial, disorganized adoption of the Internet, but voiced his concern about the U.S.’s position in the global cleantech business.

Doerr said. “Even if you don’t believe in global warming, or if you don’t believe this is going to be the biggest global business… the U.S. is not going to win unless our entrepreneurs start to lead — and not just our business entrepreneurs, also our policy entrepreneurs.”

In underscoring the opportunity, Doerr pointed out that while the Internet represents a $1 trillion economy, the energy business  is a $6 trillion dollar economy(!).

And in a soundbite built to stir the passion of pioneering entrepreneurial zeal, Doerr declared, “The super grid is going to be the last great network we build in our lifetimes.”

See the writeup on Doerr’s talk by Eric Wesoff in GreenTechMedia.