Wireless Predictions for 2010

Steve Schuster — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 19:53:39 +0000

Certainly no calendar flip would be complete without a laundry list of predictions for the new year. FierceWireless has put together a compelling predictions for the wireless industry. To summarize:

Net neutrality will pass, but with exceptions for wireless
Palm will be purchased by another handset vendor
Pricing, coverage issues will hinder cable companies’ wireless offerings
Sprint Nextel’s 4G leadership will help revive the carrier
Huawei will get one LTE deal in North America
At least one wireless carrier will experiment with usage-based data pricing
Motorola will show some signs of recovery thanks to Android (last year, FierceWireless predicted “Motorola’s handset division will cease to be“)
Computer makers’ attempts at Android smartphones will flounder

Read the full FierceWireless report here.

Meanwhile, Juniper Research has drawn up a list of predictions for the coming year, all neatly wrapped up as the top ten predictions for the mobile and wireless industry for 2010. Summarized as follows:

Mobile Data Traffic Explosion to strain 3G Networks, spur data pricing overhaul
Mobile Ecosystem starts to go green
Mobile Heads for the Cloud
New Category of Merging Smartphone Functionality and Netbooks to Emerge
Apps Stores All Round
Mobile Social Networking to Integrate with other Applications including M-Commerce
NFC phones appear in the shops
At least 10 LTE networks to be launched into service
Smartphones to Get Augmented Reality Makeover
Christmas Kindle sales expected to herald the rise of the connected embedded consumer devices

The first prediction is one I’m hearing a lot about from our infrastructure clients. As Juniper says, although 3G is less than ten years old, 2010 could be the year when 3G networks begin to fall over under the burden of mobile data, due largely to some 33.8m iPhones that have been sold since launch.

Then there’s Dean Bubley‘s predictions from his Disruptive Wireless blog. Dean lists “heroes, zeroes, and no-surprises” as follows:

Heros

HSPA+
Apple iPhone
Android
Augmented reality
Facebook
Consumer femtocells
Huawei
“Comes with data”
Connection-sharing
Operator-on-operator applications

Zeros

Mobile IMS and RCS
LTE
Virtual conferences
NFC
Twitter
Enterprise femtocells
Embedded 3G netbooks
Smartphone profit margins
Operator AppStores
Aggregated social networks
The terms “dumb pipe” and “over the top”

No surprises

WiMAX
Open network APIs
WiFi
Nokia
BlackBerry
Consolidation
Mobile TV (“Was dead, is dead, will stay dead.”)
Data roaming prices

And finally, WirelessWeek compiled its list by soliciting input from “industry leaders” on the following topics for 2010:

Prepaid & data
Net neutrality & mobile web
Emphasis on competition, emerging devices
Race to converged connectivity
Wireless in the enterprise
Content & apps purchasing on rise
Video optimization as prevalent as web optimization
Synthesis for M2M services
Mobile money expansion
Smartphones for more people
M2M is major growth area
Large brands recognize value of mobile applications
Mobile backhaul providers embrace COE to meet needs

Lots of predictions in a volatile industry. I came away from the holidays with one prevailing observation – as we turn the decade clock to 2010, one thing is far different than ten years ago. My extended family had a lovely time together as always, but everyone sure spent a lot of time on their various mobile devices. At one point, I looked around the table at more than a dozen siblings, children, neices & nephews and saw why the room was so quiet – everyone had a mobile device in their hands.

My prediction: This mobile thing is going to be big.

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Wireless Predictions for 2010